Lone Wolf Meets Devil's Advocate -- Situational Decision-Making

- What are the obstacles that hamper successfulignores the emotions and egos affecting the course
decision-making?of discussion.
- What are the downsides of group decision-making?One of the tools that are used in organizations to
- How does our management style affect thebroaden the scope of thinking and decision-making is
process of decision-making?Edward De Bono's method of Six Thinking Hats. We
- And why is rational thinking overrated?used it in numerous organizational settings and training
The following article discusses tools for thesessions as a tool for an effective and thorough
management of decision-making processes underdiscussion of complex issues. It helps map different
changing conditions.aspects of the subject towards making a decision.
Decision-Making with StyleThe principle of this method is to direct the thinking
Try to recall an important decision which you were aand the debate of all group members to six different
part of in the past 6 months. Think of the mostthinking directions. Thus, the entire group moves
significant choice you had to make in yourforward in the same direction, instead of clashing and
organization. How was this decision taken? Did thearguing on the correct way to address the issue
senior manger make the call after consulting withaltogether. For instance, early in the discussion
several assistants? Was it a majority rule? Was it aparticipants should put on their "Red Hat" -
consensus decision? Were objective facts andencouraging people to express feelings, hunches and
information the driving force behind it, or intuitionsintuitions - without the need for logical explanations.
and feelings? How long did it take to make the finalThis minimizes hidden influence of negative or positive
decision?feelings later in the discussion. Wearing the "White
Some of us tend to make our major decisions on ourHat" (focusing on facts, information and missing data)
own, while others prefer to do it after hearing thesoon afterwards prevents the dangers of ignoring
opinions and exploring the options with others. Wecrucial facts and ensures that a decision can be made
also differ in the time we take to make a decision,based on available information. The use of other
and in our need to base it on factual analysis or onthinking hats may provide an answer to other typical
intuition. In other words, each of us has adecision-making errors - such as wearing the Black
characteristic personal decision-making style.Hat to investigate potential problems when the entire
The managerial decision-making style may be mappedgroup is enthusiastic about moving forward with a
using three axes:certain decision.
- Decision-making speed: on the one end you haveOvercoming group pressure
the impulsive decision-makers, who do no stop toAnother well-known hazard characteristic of group
consider the results of their choices, while on thedecision-making is the Groupthink effect, discussed
other extreme you'll find those who postpone andby Janis & Mann (1977). The Abilene Paradox
avoid making any decision in fear of takingalso describes how group decisions can actually be
responsibility for it.opposite to the views of its members. This
- Collection of information: to what extent does thephenomena was observed by Jerry B. Harvey and it
manager base their decisions on an analysis of datadenotes a process that leads a group to make an
as opposed to intuition and an internal compass.irrational decision, mostly because each member tries
- Sharing: the extent and manner by which managersto adjust his/her opinion to what they consider to be
involve and include others in the collection ofthe view of other group members.
information and in the making of the decision itself.Numerous studies have shown that this type of
Usually, when we think of the first axis -failure has lead to crucial decisions - such as the US
decision-making speed - the common view aboutmisinterpretation of the Japanese maneuvers before
postponing a decision is negative ("How long must wethe attack on Pearl Harbor, the invasion to the Cuban
wait for his decision?"). Indeed, some situations callBay of Pigs, the Challenger and Columbia space
for an early resolution before things get out of handshuttle disasters and lately - the American invasion of
and a greater problem is faced. However, on otherIraq.
situations a hasty decision may very costly. In otherJanis lists a number of symptoms that help identify
cases things may be resolved by themselves (onewhen groupthink occurs - the illusion of unanimity, self
may say that it is better "to decide not to decide"censorship, avoidance of criticism, pressure on
then).non-conformists, etc. He then points to the typical
The second and third axes (collection of informationcharacteristics of decisions made under these
and sharing) provide a framework for describing fiveconditions - insufficient examination of alternatives,
typical managerial decision makers:partial understanding of the purposes of the decision,
- The Lone Wolf: this manager never consults withignoring of significant risks involved, lack of vital
anyone and decides on everything by himself.information and no contingency plans.
- The Surveyor: this type of manager does not holdWe offer two tools for a structured discussion in
a discussion before the decision, but rather samplesorder to reduce the dangers of groupthink. The first
the views of people involved (in a kind oftool is called "Devil's Advocate" and is used to force
referendum), and decides according to the majoritythe participants to examine the arguments against a
view.decision that is about to be made. Before or at the
- The Authoritarian: this manager consults and listensoutset of the debate one of the group members is
to others to draw ideas and directions, but makesgiven the role of questioning the underlying
the final decision by himself.assumptions and major arguments of the team.
- Semi-Democratic: this manager holds a discussionWhen someone is trusted with this official role, there
and strives for a collective decision, yet keeps theare greater chances that they will not fear to
right of veto on certain decisions.express their criticism, opening the way for others to
- Harmonic: this manager consults and reaches araise doubts and disagreements.
common agreement, usually through a consensus (e.g.Another tool for overcoming the risks of groupthink
where others have the right of veto as well).is based on the Delphi Technique for situational
Flexible decision-making - according to the situationanalysis and decision-making. The views of each
In order to improve the quality of decision-making,group member are written separately and collected in
we should begin by recognizing our typicaladvance (and in sensitive decision - anonymously).
decision-making style and that of our co-workers. InThe results are then collected and discussed in the
addition, as managers, we must understand thatgroup. Due to this seemingly technical procedure
different situations call for different decision-makingparticipants don't know the opinions of others when
strategies and techniques. Therefore, we have tothey have to make their own recommendation, and
acquire new mechanisms for making decisions, soa wider range of views is usually produced.
that we may choose the way we tackle a situationWe used this technique for an expert committee
according to its characteristics.that discussed and rated product innovation ideas.
There are three central questions we need to askThe meeting is opened with a general discussion on
ourselves whenever we are about to make athe criteria that should be considered when rating the
managerial decision:ideas. Participants then personally rate dozens of
- Is it vital to make a decision, and if so - how urgentinnovation ideas (produced beforehand) on a scale of
is it?1-5. An average rating for each idea is calculated from
- What information is required in order to make athese individual judgments and the highest ranking
calculated choice, and when is it necessary to goideas are discussed. In such a way, a certain idea
ahead even with partial information?may be highly rated by most members, yet one
- Who need to be a part of the decision-makingparticipant might have noticed a major flaw in the
process, and to what extent?idea, and his reservation is revealed through the low
Let us demonstrate the use of the above questionsrating given to the idea.
through several examples:The trap of commitment (to preceding decisions)
Example A: The organization has grown and needs toThe last aspect of decision-making we turn our
be moved to a new office building. The Operationsattention to has to do with emotion and ego.
Manager is required to choose the location for theWhenever we make a personal decision, or are
new building. His decision will probably have a directinvolved in a group decision, we become emotionally
influence on all departments, and it is desirable toand psychologically committed to the choice we
make them a part of the process. This will oftenmade. As time progresses and we invest more
contribute to the quality of the decision (providing aresources in the execution of our chosen path, our
more holistic view of the implications of the decision),individual and organizational tendency to support that
and will also lower levels of resistance once thedirection grows. Even if we are faced with signs that
decision is made (as everyone had a chance toindicate that the original decision was wrong, we
express their concerns and suggestions and whereusually find it hard to admit the mistake, conquer our
involved early in the process).ego and pride, and change it. This kind of situation
The decision does not seem to be an urgent one, asmay lead to a magic trap, driving people and
well. In such a scenario the Operations Manager mayorganizations on a path of deterioration and
prepare initial information on available choices, costs,escalation of a single mistake, leading to more and
and considerations. Later - others may be made partmore wrong choices (see Drummond, 1994).
of the decision buy presenting three or fourAn interesting way to expose managers to this type
acceptable options, to be decided by the majority.of danger, so that they may learn to avoid it, is by
The Surveyor style is most appropriate.letting them experience it. This may be accomplished,
Example B: One of your employees was caughtfor instance, through a decision-making simulation and
stealing company equipment. Your decision will notanalysis through board games. Such exercises require
directly affect other employees (they might learnparticipating managers to make personal, small team
from the way you handle the case). The best tacticsand entire group decisions in a variety of game
in this case would be a thorough investigation of thesituations. Most partakers fall into the trap of sticking
facts, and if in fact the employee has committed theto an initial game plan, and find it hard to exert
theft, it should be handled without delay and in anstrategic or tactical flexibility. Following this
authoritarian manner - discharging the employee. It isdemonstration through play, is an observation and
advisable to consult with the HR department and thediscussion of the emotional and inter-personal causes
legal department, to make sure the dismissal adheresof this escalation. Finally, work related examples of
to all legal procedures.similar decision patterns should be discussed and tools
Example C: You come across a significant businessare offered for breaking those patterns.
opportunity for your organization, but a quickImproving the quality of personal and organizational
response and action is needed in order to grab it. It isdecision
obvious that others will be influenced by the decision,In this final section, we suggest ways to cope with
and must therefore be a part of it. In order not tothe dangers listed above. The suggested measures
lose time you may call an urgent interdisciplinarymay be implemented by the management of the
meeting, collecting vital information from allorganization, and especially the Human Resource
participants before making a common and moreDepartment:
balanced decision, taking into consideration the
various risks and benefits. A group decision will also1. Raising the awareness of managers and employees
allow other the chance to agree and support theto their decision-making styles through the use of
new business direction.personal test or surveys, observations, management
The Age of Rationality and its dangersconsulting or workshops.
If we seek to improve the way we make decisions,2. A systematic placement of different types of
understanding the situation and adopting thedecision-makers in key positions and in task forces.
appropriate decision-making style is hardly enough.3. Encouraging the use of decision-making tools such
The crossroads in which we choose the directions toas Delphi, consensual decision-making, Devil's
our future carry with them quite a few traps andAdvocate and the Six Thinking Hats.
obstacles that may fail us. Following is a discussion of4. The analysis of cases of good and bad decisions in
some well-known pitfalls of decision-makingthe organization itself - aiming towards learning rather
processes, along with relevant tools and measures tothen blaming.
face those dangers.Personally, each one of us may learn to improve our
The modern age has seen the rise of rational thinkingdecision by observing the ways other people make
to a position of supremacy. This has gone so far asdecisions, asking feedback on the way we make
to lead to the illusion that human can and should trydecisions, and intentionally trying out decision-making
to be perfect decision-makers. The unequivocal beliefstyles which are different from our typical style. All
in the rationality of man is based on the modern viewof this should eventually contribute for improving the
of man, on western philosophy and on the rise andway we make decisions and the quality of the
achievements of science in the past two centuries.decisions we make. In the long term - this is what
However, there is still a lot of evidence of the limitsevery organization and person must do in order to
of human rationality. We know of the limited ability toadvance in today's challenging world.
collect and process decision-related information, theReferences
subjective interpretation of facts, and the effects of- Harvey, Jerry B. (1988). The Abilene Paradox and
personality and culture on decisions.Other Meditations on Management. Lexington, Mass:
Consider, for instance, a meeting in which theLexington Books.
participants have to make a certain decision. In most- Janis, I. & Mann, L. (1977). Decision Making: A
cases, they would voice arguments supportingPsychological Analysis of Conflict, Choice and
different views, using logical explanations to supportCommitment. New York: The Free Press.
their point of view. The underlying meaning of making- Drummond, H. (1994), "Escalation in Organizational
a decision in such a setting is that one explanation isDecision Making: A Case of Recruiting an Incompetent
logically correct while other arguments are logicallyEmployee", Journal of Behavioral Decision Making, 7,
false. This process fails to face the truth of limited43-55.
information that participants have. It completely