Global Warming and Ockham's Razor

In the Fourteenth Century, a Franciscan friar namedMars, and recent photographs of the Red Planet
William of Ochkam proposed a new way of lookingsuggest that a flowing liquid--perhaps even
at the world. Known today as "Ockham's Razor," hiswater--was present on its surface within geologically
approach tried to cut through the complexities andrecent times. In this modern age of satellites and
convolutions of the Scholastic school of philosophy byadvanced rocketry, this provides two alternative
suggesting that all else being equal, the simplesthypotheses for us to consider, with respect to
explanation for a phenomenon is probably the correctchanges in our climate:
one.Alternative A: Earth's climate changes over time, and
Like many other dangerous thinkers of theit looks like polar ice is disappearing on both the Earth
Renaissance--including such impious malcontents asand Mars. Perhaps something common to both, like
Galileo and Copernicus--William of Ockham wasthe Sun, is the cause.
ultimately charged with heresy. This fate is all tooAlternative B: Humans pollute, and have a dominating
familiar to anyone who has tried bringing logic to bearimpact on their surroundings. Therefore, we are the
upon arguments that are being waged emotionally.cause of global warming. Something else must be
And, unfortunately, charges of heresy are not mereaffecting Mars.
relics of history. We see similar charges made todayThe conclusion suggested by Ockham's Razor is that
against many whose only crime is being on thewe should study the effects of the Sun--particularly
wrong side of a political debate--some of which arewhether the Earth's climate is affected by small
questions that, like the conception of the Universe invariations in the Sun's output of energy. Once we
earlier days, are questions of science rather thanknow this, we may be able to learn what effect
matters of faith.humans may be having with respect to global
Our Place in the Universe: The Renaissance Confrontstemperatures.
CopernicusThe conclusion of today's Political Orthodoxy appears
In the days of Copernicus, conventional wisdomto be that humans are obviously the cause of a
placed the Earth at the center of the Universe (sincechanging global climate, the matter is beyond debate,
God would never place us anywhere else), sinceand anyone who suggests otherwise is obviously a
every object in the heavens moved around us in theheretic (and, if the heretic is a meteorologist or other
sky. But astronomers could tell that the paths takenscientist, someone whose credentials should be
by the planets seemed to move in uneven patternsrevoked).
across the sky--some, weaving their way throughCooling Down the Debate
the night sky, while others occasionally crossed theirIn today's political climate, our concerns over global
own pathways while performing slow-motion loops. Inwarming share many of the characteristics that led
the days before satellites and advanced rocketthe Church to condemn the early astronomers. We
science, this offered two alternative explanations tohave imperfect knowledge about our subject, and
the people of the Renaissance:strong emotions affect our perceptions. We also
Alternative A (favored by Copernicus and Galileo): Ifhave forgotten that we are, in many respect, still
the Sun is in the center--and all the planets rotatejust big apes. We are brighter and more curious than
around the Sun, rather than the Earth--thenour cousins, perhaps, but we are just as prone to
everything lines up, and the planets' motions areget into trouble. And we are just as likely to get so
explained.excited about some grand occurrence or other that
Alternative B: If the Earth is in the center of thewe often misplace what little sense we have, start
Universe, then for some reason not mentioned in thebeating our chests to show how important we are,
Bible, the planets are whirling in circles as they moveand forget about using our brains.
around the Earth.Many suggestions advanced as weapons in the fight
The conclusion suggested by Ockham's Razor is thatagainst global warming are, in themselves, quite
either the Sun is in the middle, or something is missingsensible on their own merits. Pollution is not a good
from the puzzle that we don't understand.thing, after all, and most reasonable steps to contain
The conclusion of the Church--the political Orthodoxyit have much to commend them. But sounding alarm
of the day--was that since we were obviously thebells, or warning of apocalyptic events in the near
center of Creation, the subject was not open tofuture, does nothing to advance human knowledge
debate and the astronomers were obviously hereticsand only confuses what we know with what we feel.
for suggesting otherwise.It also overlooks the "inconvenient truth" that similar
From our perch in the 21st Century, we scoff at thealarm bells sounded thirty years ago about an
early Church for its pronouncements, and saluteimpending Ice Age...which proponents insisted was
Galileo and Copernicus for their vision and dedicationbeing brought about by the impact of humans on the
to scientific truth. But we don't have to look far toplanet that is our home. And in the turmoil, we seem
see that while we are more scientifically advancedto have forgotten that forty years before the Ice
than our Renaissance ancestors, we haven't learnedAge scare of the 1970s---in the depths of the Dust
much from their experience. For proof, we only needBowl days in the 1930s---we were too concerned
to look at one of today's hottest issues--the heatabout living through the Great Depression to worry
generated by our concerns over global warning.very much about why it seemed so hot.
Modern Geocentrism: Global WarmingOckham's Razor is a principle of inquiry, not a
Today, there seems to be some evidence that ourscientific fact. It suggests a methodology for testing
climate is gradually getting warmer. Politicians--in theassumptions and analyzing the world but will not, by
world of Science, as well as Politics--assure us thatitself, tell which of several possible explanations is
they have identified the cause...that the cause istrue. It only suggests a course to follow to seek out
us...and that dire consequences will follow from failingthe truth...and reminds us that because there is much
to take immediate steps to stop it. In addition,we do not know, we must always be open to new
selected groups of scientists having issuedways of looking at things. But its essential wisdom
proclamations on the subject, the solution to thecomes from realizing that complex explanations
problem happens to be beyond further scientificusually produce unworkable solutions, and that with
inquiry as well...and anyone who denies these obvioussimplicity comes understanding.
truths wants us all to die.Humans will always have imperfect knowledge. This is
History tells us that the Medieval Warming Period,as it should be, for the era that sees us lose our
which began about the 9th Century, lasted for aboutquest for knowledge will be the era that sees human
four hundred years, even though much of it issociety begin descending into another Dark Age. But
undocumented by a written historical record (owing,we should never confuse fact with opinion, and we
alas, to the limitations imposed by the Dark Ages).should always be open to the possibility that we are
This was followed by a Little Ice Age that lastedwrong. In the end, all that matters is the truth; in the
from the 1400s until the 1800s, a time of intense coldthinking about our changing environment we should
and advancing glaciers and polar ice caps. And sinceconcentrate on the science of climate change, not on
the 1800s, our climate has been gradually warming.the politics.
As of the early 21st Century, some of the polar iceFor the rest, we should remember that thinking
on Earth appears to be melting, and glaciers areourselves the center of creation usually leads to all
receding in many areas around the globe. It alsosorts of mischief.
seems that polar ice may be receding on the Planet