| What I am going to outline over this series of articles | | | | a historical paper-based assessment of a horses |
| is a method that can be used successfully for trading | | | | chances as viewed by the bookmaker, but as the |
| horses on Betfair. | | | | day wears on "news" begins to move prices rapidly, |
| I guarantee this method works and will make you a | | | | and as the horses start "going down" the action really |
| profit with minimal financial risk to your overall betting | | | | takes off. |
| pot. If you stick rigidly to the rules!! | | | | Prices at 10/1 in the morning can be 5/1 or 20/1 by |
| I am going to have to make qualifying statements | | | | the time the horses are entering the stalls. |
| because if you don't stick carefully to the rules and | | | | This is where the experienced confident trader can |
| instructions, you will lose money over the long term. | | | | really scalp the market and make guaranteed profits |
| My qualifications are as below: | | | | depending on their expertise. |
| + 5 years as a traditional horse racing punter (loser | | | | Before you get carried away with this information, |
| overall) | | | | beware! |
| + 2 years of Betfair punting breaking even. | | | | The real challenge in horse trading is as always the |
| + 6 months using my finely tuned trading method | | | | crucial missing link in the chain that other so-called |
| (overall profit) | | | | "experts" always forget to tell you. |
| Why am I giving away this information, wont it | | | | "knowing" which race and which horse price are going |
| affect my profits? | | | | to move to a significant enough degree to cover the |
| I'm sure you've seen these sort of statements | | | | market spread and so allow you to trade. |
| before on your own research into Betfair. | | | | Steaming is the movement of horse prices |
| There are betting systems galore presented on the | | | | downward. Drifting is the reverse. Movement of |
| internet. Everyone claims their system is the only one | | | | horse prices upwards. |
| that works. | | | | It is possible to trade in both directions. Most |
| Surprisingly, the standard answer to this question for | | | | professional traders however look for steamers as |
| once is actually true, and I will attempt to explain | | | | this is where you will get the greatest liquidity due to |
| why. | | | | lack of backers on horses which are drifting for |
| Similarly to the Stock Market trading or scalping on | | | | obvious reasons. |
| Betfair relies totally on liquidity and volatility or in | | | | This is where most trading "advisors" and book |
| layman's terms.CASH and NEWS!! | | | | writers and manuals leave you. Like most promises of |
| The more cash flowing through any financial trading | | | | wealth and success on the internet, there's hype |
| system the more bull and bear trends are followed | | | | more hype a little bit of advertising and then a tiny |
| and therefore exaggerated. This in turn leads to | | | | nugget of an idea at the end which has cost you |
| trends being more defined and longer lasting and so | | | | £200. |
| becoming easier to trade. | | | | Later I will be showing you exactly how I go about |
| With more cash attempting to trade these peaks | | | | looking for steamers that I can get on early enough |
| and troughs bigger bets can be matched and so on | | | | to guarantee a worthwhile profit for my efforts. |
| and so forth. | | | | As you learn and refine your own trading style and |
| These systems are self perpetuating until the bubble | | | | expertise you will get a feel of your own for |
| created by buyers matching sellers, in other words | | | | steamers. Everything else is academic and can be |
| demand matching supply, bursts!! | | | | taught, the art of finding a steamer and timing your |
| And what is the initial trigger for a trend up or down | | | | trades is just something you develop and learn by |
| or a sharp change of direction? | | | | practice. |
| Well in the Stock Market there are a variety of | | | | Innovate, experiment, and learn by doing. Take the |
| different factors, but ultimately the sharp price | | | | pain of losing bets and always ruminate, cogitate and |
| movements are all triggered by NEWS. | | | | digest the information as to what went wrong and |
| Okay, this news may come from a thousand | | | | why. |
| different sources ie profit warnings, changing | | | | This is the only way you will learn to identify |
| fundamantals such as account statements and | | | | steamers and trade them effectively. |
| balance sheets, movements of the related exchange | | | | FACT: The more people using these and any other |
| index, all the way down to things as spurious as | | | | methods and systems on Betfair the better for |
| hurricane warnings, terror attacks and the interest | | | | everyone. |
| rate. | | | | For every punter that I teach to win, there will be a |
| Trading the Stock Market, it's extremely difficult for | | | | hundred others who will be using this and/or other |
| the average punter to follow these sources of news | | | | systems. |
| 24/7 and piece them together because they come | | | | 90% of people attempting to learn and follow a |
| from so many different angles and by the time you | | | | system will ignore a lot of the rules and caveats, or |
| hear about them the market is often already pricing | | | | won't be as good or determined as the top 10%. |
| in the news. | | | | Therefore they will lose their money, which then in |
| You are competing against multi billion pound | | | | turn becomes available for you to win!! |
| corporations, banks and pension funds, guys in the | | | | Let us get one thing straight about Betfair: |
| city who are paid huge sums to trade this | | | | When you begin to win then the money you will |
| information. Robots and multi-million dollar auto-trading | | | | receive is being taken from losing punters. |
| computerized facilities compete for every penny. | | | | Betfair is just a MEDIUM, hence the phrase |
| Unless you are sitting in a news conference with a | | | | "EXCHANGE" that matches your money directly with |
| laptop and wi-fi you will never beat these markets. | | | | money from another punter or punters with an |
| The news can happen at any time of day or night | | | | opposing view about an event. |
| meaning you can wake to find you've missed an | | | | If you are backing an "event" to win then the money |
| important piece of news and your Stock has | | | | you are wagering is matched against another who is |
| plummeted at opening time. | | | | "laying" the event to lose. |
| The reason Betfair is the perfect "trading" medium is | | | | To really understand Betfair trading we need to |
| due to the massive volatility involved in horse racing, | | | | understand the benefits of liquidity and volatility to |
| and enough liquidity around the top horses in a race. | | | | experienced traders, and to do this we will use an |
| A horse race is also a defined entity with prices | | | | example of liquidity and volatility in action in the Stock |
| starting the night before, a race start and a race end | | | | Market. |
| i.e. the Stock exists essentially for less than a day. | | | | In my next article I will be looking at a recent FTSE |
| The market is too volatile and unpredictable for the | | | | 100 Stock situation to demonstrate a perfect |
| big players. It is a collection of small players like | | | | example of volatility and liquidity in the Stock Market |
| yourself pitting their wits against each other and the | | | | and how professional traders make easy money by |
| system. | | | | disseminating vital news in advance of the market. |
| The racing prices given early in the day reflect purely | | | | |